Dabur India: Is the Negative Sentiment Confirming the Technical Structure?

Dabur is an FMCG business run out of Delhi NCR. The share has come from the ₹490 region earlier this year down to around ₹370, and currently sits near ₹385.

That much everyone agrees on. The interesting part is the sequencing. From a technical point of view the price structure had already turned bearish before the negative developments became visible to anybody reading the news.

Start with the number that does not fit. Dabur's Q1 FY27 results were strong, with consolidated revenue rising 10.6% and net profit rising 15%. That is not the print of a company coming apart.

The stock stayed under pressure anyway, and was among the FMCG names that hit 52 week lows in August. Elevated commodity prices, and the margin question attached to them, are being treated as the pressure points.

Then there is the regulatory file. The company faced pressure over its use of "100%" product claims, although the Delhi High Court subsequently stayed the FSSAI order. Separately, it has been in a dispute with Emami over its Cool King Thanda Tel product.

The chart has been studied and evaluated using Elliott Wave Principle.

Elliott Wave Principle is a form of technical analysis developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott. It proposes that market prices move in repeating patterns of advances and corrections, driven by collective investor psychology. The basic structure is:

• Impulse: 5 waves in the direction of the larger trend — 1-2-3-4-5
• Correction: 3 waves against the trend — A-B-C

The decline reads as an impulsive moveiA price move that runs with the larger trend. In this framework it unfolds in five legs. inside a larger degree of correctioniDegree means scale. The same wave shapes repeat on a weekly chart and on a five minute chart, so every wave sits inside a bigger one. that has been in progress since August 2024. The labels on Figure 1 are the whole argument.

Wave (1) took the stock towards the ₹420 region. What followed was a relatively modest recovery towards ₹430 to ₹435, and that is where Wave (2) sits. The decline after it, Wave (3), carried the strongest selling pressure and took the stock down to ₹370.

The current recovery towards ₹385 is where a Wave (4) would fit. Read that way, the sequence on the chart is not a finished one.

There is also an alternate count marked in orange. On this reading, the recovery from ₹370 is not being treated simply as Wave (4) of the larger bearish impulse but also as wave (A) of a larger corrective sequenceiA move that runs against the larger trend. Usually shorter and choppier than an impulse.. That keeps the recent recovery within a broader correction and leaves the next leg of the structure open.

Notice what none of that required. No earnings model, no channel checks, no view on commodity costs. Elliott Wave Principle is an attempt to track the psychology behind price movements. The company developments and the sentiment around them supply the narrative afterwards.

A wave countiThe set of labels an analyst puts on a chart to mark where each leg begins and ends. It is a reading, and it gets redrawn whenever price stops fitting it. is a reading, not a forecast, and it is only ever as good as the next few candles. If this recovery carries back through the Wave (1) low, the labels as drawn stop working and the count has to be redrawn from the left edge.

What we find worth sitting with is narrower than a direction. It is the sequencing: a structure that turned while the results were still good, and a set of headlines that only made sense of it later.